8501.0 - Retail Trade, Australia, Dec 2003

ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 04/02/2004

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Main Features
About this Release

December Key Figures


		Dec 03	Nov 03 to Dec 03
		$m	% change

Turnover at current prices
	Trend estimates	15,768.5	0.7
	Seasonally adjusted estimates	15,665.8	-0.6


		Dec Qtr 03	Sep Qtr 03 to Dec Qtr 03
		$m	% change

Turnover, in volume terms
	Trend estimates	45,737.1	2.4
	Seasonally adjusted estimates	45,864.3	2.6

Monthly turnover, Trend estimates—% change
Graph: Key figures_KF graph 2

Quarterly turnover, in volume terms—Trend estimates
Graph: CVM tables 14 & 15_KFG Qtr

December Key Points

TREND ESTIMATES

The trend estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series increased by 0.7% in December 2003 compared with November 2003. This follows increases of 0.8% in November 2003 and 0.9% in October 2003.
The trend estimate rose in all states and territories except the Australian Capital Territory. The largest increases were in Queensland, South Australia and New South Wales.
Over the three months to December 2003 the trend estimate rose by $359m. Hospitality and Services (+$129m), Food retailing (+$97m) and Other retailing (+$67m) showed the largest increases.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

The seasonally adjusted estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series fell by 0.6% in December 2003 compared with November 2003. This follows a revised increase of 1.1% in November 2003 and 1.2% in October 2003.
The estimate of total turnover for December 2003 was 8.1% higher than December 2002.

ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

In original terms, Australian turnover rose by 23.6% in December 2003 compared with November 2003. Chains and other large retailers (which are completely enumerated) rose by 27.8%, while 'smaller' retailers (the sampled units) rose by 18.0%.
Australian turnover increased by 8.5% in December 2003 compared with December 2002. Chains and other large retailers increased by 7.2%, while 'smaller' retailers increased by 10.5%.

VOLUME MEASURES

The trend volume measure of turnover rose by 2.4% in the December quarter 2003. This follows an increase of 2.3% in the September quarter 2003. In seasonally adjusted terms, the volume measure rose by 2.6% in the December quarter 2003.

Notes

CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

Quarterly chain volume data are shown in tables 14 and 15 of this issue.

SAMPLING ERRORS

Standard errors for the Australian estimates (original data) for December 2003 contained in this publication are:


Data Series	Estimate	Standard error

Level of retail turnover ($m)	20,090.8	185.6
Change from preceding month ($m)	3,832.2	69.1
% change from preceding month (%)	23.6	0.4

Estimates for sampled businesses in the first month of each quarter can be influenced by the quarterly rotation of sampled businesses. This rotation is done to spread the reporting load across retailers and to ensure the sample remains representative of the population. At times, the businesses rotated into the sample can perform differently from the businesses they replace or those already in the sample. The potential impact of the quarterly rotation is reflected in the sampling errors for the relevant months.

For more information see the Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 30-34, or contact Graham Phillips on 02 6252 5625.

Inquiries

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Graham Phillips on Canberra (02) 6252 5625.

Summary Commentary

INDUSTRY TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

TOTAL RETAIL

Trend growth was moderate in December 2003 after having been strong over the previous six months. Recreational good retailing, Other retailing and Hospitality and services have had strong trend growth for seven or more months. Household good retailing was flat in December 2003 and Department stores was in decline.

FOOD RETAILING

There has been moderate trend growth for the last 11 months. Queensland and Tasmania have had strong growth in each of the last seven months and New South Wales and the Northern Territory have had moderate growth. Victoria, Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory had weak trend growth or were flat in the last five months.

DEPARTMENT STORES

The trend was in decline in the last three months. Victoria, South Australia, Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory were in decline in this period. In December 2003, New South Wales was also in decline while Queensland had weak trend growth.

Graph: industry graphs_department stores

CLOTHING AND SOFT GOOD RETAILING

There has been moderate to strong trend growth over the last six months. New South Wales and South Australia have had strong growth in the last four months while Victoria has had moderate growth. Tasmania, the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory were flat or in decline in the last five months.

Graph: industry graphs_clothing & soft good ret

HOUSEHOLD GOOD RETAILING

The trend growth rate has been slowing since June 2003 with the trend for December 2003 being flat. Western Australia was the only state with strong trend growth in December 2003 as well as having had strong growth for the previous 12 months. Northern Territory had moderate trend growth in December 2003 after nearly a year of strong growth. Victoria has been in decline for five months.

Graph: industry graphs_household good retailing

RECREATIONAL GOOD RETAILING

There has been strong trend growth over the last eight months. New South Wales and Queensland have had strong trend growth over this period, and Western Australia and South Australia have had strong growth for the last six months and four months respectively. Victoria had strong growth in the last four months after having been in decline for 12 months.

Graph: industry graphs_recreational good retailing

OTHER RETAILING

Trend growth has been strong over the last 11 months. Victoria and the Australian Capital Territory has had strong trend growth for the last eight months. After six months of strong growth, Queensland had moderate growth in November and December 2003. After eight months of strong trend growth New South Wales had moderate growth in November 2003 and weak growth in December 2003.

TOTAL RETAIL (excluding Hospitality and Services)

The rate of trend growth for Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) has been below that of Total industries (including Hospitality and services) for the last five months.

Graph: industry graphs_total retail (excl hos)

HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES

There has been strong trend growth over the last seven months. Queensland has had strong trend growth in each of the last 11 months, Victoria has had strong growth over the last seven months and New South Wales over the last five months. The Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory have been in decline in each of the last five months.

Graph: industry graphs_hospitality & services

STATE TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

NEW SOUTH WALES

Trend growth was moderate in December 2003 after having been strong for the previous five months. Recreational good retailing and Hospitality and services have shown strong trend growth in this period. Clothing and soft good retailing has shown strong growth in the last four months. Department stores was in decline in December 2003.

Graph: ppw8501 state graphs_new south wales

VICTORIA

Trend growth was moderate in November and December 2003 following four months of strong growth. Other retailing and Hospitality and services have shown strong trend growth over this period. Recreational good retailing had been in decline since September 2002, but has had strong trend growth in the last four months. Food retailing has been flat for four months and Household good retailing has been in decline for the last five months.

QUEENSLAND

Trend growth has been strong for nine months. Food retailing, Recreational good retailing and Hospitality and services have all shown strong trend growth in each of these months. Household good retailing and Other retailing had strong growth for most of this period.

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

The trend has shown strong growth in the last two months. Clothing and soft good retailing and Recreational good retailing have shown strong growth over the last four months and Other retailing over the last three months. Department stores have been in decline for the last five months.

Graph: ppw8501 state graphs_south australia

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

Trend growth has been slowing from strong growth in June 2003 to weak growth in December 2003. The trend growth for Household good retailing has been strong since October 2002 although the rate of growth has been slowing since July 2003. Recreational good retailing has had strong growth for the last six months. Department stores and Clothing and soft good retailing have been in decline in the last three months.

Graph: ppw8501 state graphs_western australia

TASMANIA

The trend growth has been moderate for the last two months after seven months of being strong. Food retailing has had strong growth over the last eight months. Hospitality and services had weak growth in December 2003 and all the other industries were either flat or in decline.